Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,777,710$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.24 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,811,124.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 154.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,811,124.7\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $178,486$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.65 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(67.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{159,505.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 65.0)}}\) (asimptote \(159,505.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,545,525$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $568,621$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.32 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{679,383.0}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 121.6)}}\) (asimptote \(679,383.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61,450$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.52 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{67,407.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 104.9)}}\) (asimptote \(67,407.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,965$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $88,381$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,388.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 136.9)}}\) (asimptote \(117,388.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,919$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(66 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,368.7}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 155.4)}}\) (asimptote \(3,368.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,703$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $127,903$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(73.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116,725.4}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 61.3)}}\) (asimptote \(116,725.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,136$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(74.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,907.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,907.4\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,958$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $55,877$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.58 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,749.5}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 118.3)}}\) (asimptote \(59,749.5\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,703$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(57.3 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,211.6}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 122.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,211.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $45,050$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $69,651$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.45 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{79,230.0}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 122.6)}}\) (asimptote \(79,230.0\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,630$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(81.9 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,830.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 105.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,830.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,130$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $92,217$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(3.46 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{149,724.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 146.7)}}\) (asimptote \(149,724.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,585$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(153 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,181.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 161.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,181.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,172$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,986$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(521 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,910.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 132.6)}}\) (asimptote \(35,910.7\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $678$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(14.6 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{832.3}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 119.4)}}\) (asimptote \(832.3\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,591$ on 2020-08-25
